Staff vacancies hit Texas weather offices as they brace for a busy hurricane season

Sign up for The Brief, The Texas Tribune’s daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

---

FORT WORTH — With hurricane season underway and an above-normal activity forecast, some National Weather Service offices like Houston — where as many as 44% of positions are vacant — are operating with staff shortages, prompting concerns about their capacity to monitor future storms.

The shortages stem from federal cuts that slashed roughly 10% of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s workforce and triggered a wave of early retirements. While no staff members from the Houston/Galveston office were laid off, several hundred employees at NOAA, which hosts the National Weather Service, took a voluntary early retirement package.

Among those stepping down: Jeff Evans, longtime meteorologist-in-charge in Houston, who retired after 34 years with the NWS, 10 of those in Texas. He told KPRC Click2Houston that it was “an honor and a privilege” to serve Texas through countless disasters.

The Houston office has 11 vacancies — 44% of its regular staffing.

The NWS provides weather warnings for tornadoes, hurricanes, wildfires and floods, and produces river and hydrological outlooks and long-term climate change data. It serves as the forecast of record for many, including TV meteorologists, journalists and researchers, as well as emergency managers, who use it to plan for potential evacuations and rescue coordination during extreme weather events.

Mark Fox, who usually works at the Oklahoma office, has stepped in to help as acting meteorologist-in-charge in Houston. Despite the strain, Fox and other local meteorologists say they’re committed to delivering life-saving forecasts and supporting emergency preparedness.

“We can continue 24/7 with the staff that we have,” Fox said. “If we need to augment staff to kind of help out and give some people a break, we can do that. But the mission is going to be fulfilled.”

Busy hurricane season

Hurricane season started June 1 and goes to November 30. NWS forecasters predict an above-normal hurricane season, citing warm Atlantic waters and weak wind shear, which are changes in the wind’s speed and direction.

The agency forecasts 13 to 19 named storms, three to five of which could become Category 3 or higher hurricanes with wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour. For context, last year’s forecast included 17 to 25 named storms and the season saw 18 named storms, 11 of which were hurricanes. Among them were Tropical Storm Alberto and Hurricane Beryl — a Category 1 that left millions of Texans without electricity for days.

NOAA defines an average Atlantic hurricane season as one with 14 named storms, of which three are stronger hurricanes, based on data from 1991 to 2020.

NOAA has a 70% confidence level in these predictions and warns that the peak of the season — typically late August through October — could be intense. The West African Monsoon, a key hurricane trigger, is also expected to be stronger than usual.

However, Fox says, this isn’t just about numbers. It’s about readiness.

“It only takes one,” Fox said. “We’ll be watching the skies from here until the end of the season, and take whatever Mother Nature throws at us.”

Federal cuts’ impact on Texas

Since the start of the year, the National Weather Service has lost nearly 600 employees due to cuts ordered by the Department of Government Efficiency under the Trump administration. After backlash, earlier this month, 126 positions, including “mission-critical” ones, were approved for hire as exceptions to a federal hiring freeze. Erica Grow Cei, a National Weather Service spokesperson, said these were approved to “stabilize frontline operations” and added that the new hires will fill positions at field offices where there's "the greatest operational need."

The nearly 600 employees that NWS has lost in the last six months has been about the same amount the agency lost in the 15 years prior, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, a union that represents weather service employees.

Fahy called the quick exodus unprecedented, saying it "definitely disrupts the entire staffing requirements for the National Weather Service" in a way previous reductions did not.

Jeff Masters, former NOAA Hurricane Hunter and a meteorologist who writes about extreme weather for Yale Climate Connections, says most of those roles won’t be filled in time to help this hurricane season.

“This was done very inefficiently,” Masters said. “First, all of the probationary employees were fired, then incentives were given to get the most experienced managers out through early retirement. Now they’re trying to do some rehiring, and then it's just not being done very efficiently.”

Masters said that the local offices have lost critical institutional knowledge and expertise.

Nationwide, reduced staffing has also meant fewer balloon launches, which are essential for collecting upper-atmosphere temperature, humidity and wind speed data critical to accurate storm modeling. A reduction in launches may lead to larger errors in hurricane tracking, says Masters.

Faced with these gaps, offices across the country are lending staff — either in person or virtually — to ensure continuous coverage during major weather events. Fahy said that this is what will keep Texas as whole “in very good shape and ready for hurricane season.”

“It’s kind of like binding hands and helping each other out wherever we can,” said Jason Johnson, hydrologist in charge at the NWS Fort Worth office. “We’ve expanded our training so meteorologists and hydrologists in other regions are ready to support us if needed.”

Despite the cuts, Johnson says Texas NWS offices remain focused on protecting lives and property.

“We’re not expecting any drop in the quality or quantity of information that we provide,” he said.

Local officials are also stepping up their preparation efforts.

“Now more than ever, local preparation is key,” said Harris County Commissioner Lesley Briones, who represents portions of Houston, Katy, Stafford, Tomball and Waller, at a press conference. “With drastic cuts… what we do here at home in Houston and Harris County is extra important.”

Her office is hosting 11 hurricane preparedness workshops and has distributed hundreds of portable air conditioners, emergency kits, and bottled water. They also plan to clear more than 7 million feet of ditches to prevent urban flooding.

“We can’t wait,” Briones said. “So local government, with our nonprofit community, with our private sector, with our places of worship, our schools, this is up to all of us.”

Meteorologists and emergency officials alike urge residents to stay informed, prepare emergency kits, and heed evacuation orders if issued.

“It’s your responsibility to monitor the weather,” Fox, the meteorologist at the Houston office, said. “On a beautiful day, just think about your plan — because when the time comes to act, it’s too late to start planning.”

---

Big news: 20 more speakers join the TribFest lineup! New additions include Margaret Spellings, former U.S. secretary of education and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center; Michael Curry, former presiding bishop and primate of The Episcopal Church; Beto O’Rourke, former U.S. Representative, D-El Paso; Joe Lonsdale, entrepreneur, founder and managing partner at 8VC; and Katie Phang, journalist and trial lawyer.

Get tickets.

TribFest 2025 is presented by JPMorganChase.